Who Really Feels the Pressure?
Although UHNW buyers may dislike another layer of taxation, they are typically far more able to absorb it. It is middle-class London families that are stretched to secure homes in strong school catchments or close to green spaces, who feel most exposed at first glance.
Yet it is precisely this group who stand to benefit from the long implementation runway. With the tax not scheduled to take effect until 2028, households have time to plan, adjust, re-evaluate borrowing and, crucially, move before the policy takes effect if it is right for them.
This breathing space is not only helpful, it is stabilising.
Thresholds Always Create Distortion But Markets Adjust
A fixed line at £2 million will initially create predictable ripples:
- Properties sitting just below the threshold may see increased demand.
- Homes marginally above it may soften as buyers price in future liability.
- Appraisals become more strategic, and negotiation slightly more delicate.
But this is not the first time the London market has encountered a fiscal cliff-edge and history suggests these distortions settle faster than expected. Stamp duty restructures, mortgage stress tests, and non-dom shifts all triggered similar anxieties, yet within months the market had almost recalibrated and moved on.
Buyers do what they have always done in London: adapt and continue moving for schools, space, jobs, commutes and lifestyle. Life events outweigh policy changes almost every time.
Why the £2m+ Market Is Still Fundamentally Resilient
It’s important to keep perspective. The buyers purchasing in this bracket, particularly in Kensington & Chelsea, Battersea & Wandsworth, Clapham, and Barnes, prioritise:
- access to outstanding schools
- architectural quality
- village-like neighbourhoods
- fast transport links
- lifestyle and community
None of those drivers fade because of a future tax.
The £2m – £5m market is characterised by families making considered, long-term decisions. These buyers have not historically retreated due to changes in taxation; instead, they adjust their parameters and keep moving.
